Future of Search
I spoke on The Future of Search on Tuesday at Search Engine Strategies San Jose. It was a fun panel. Not only did I get to pontificate (which I love to do), but I also got to be really 'out there' -- not my typical presentation style, which is typically pretty geeky and focused on the really practical, actionable stuff. I was talking about such things as the Law of Accelerating Returns, quantum computing, the LUI (Linguistic User Interface), AI (as in "autonomous intelligence" rather than the more innocuous "artificial intelligence"), and the Singularity (I'm a big fan of Ray Kurzweil, by the way). If I had had time, I would launched into a discussion of one of my personal favorite future technologies: utility fog.
Here are some of my favorite websites on such topics:
- KurzweilAI.net
- Singularity University
- Acceleration Studies Foundation
- Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Institute for the Future
What does all this have to do with search? A lot. Search is going to be nothing like what we envision it today. That's because we aren't thinking in exponential terms. We as humans tend to extrapolate forward linearly, because our brains think linearly. When you look forward towards the horizon, do you think about how we're on a giant curved sphere, or do you think of it as a long straight (flat) drive ahead until you reach your destination? Right, my point exactly. So when we think of all the progress Google (or technology in general) has made in the last 5 years, it's only natural to think about the next 5 years as an extrapolation of the past 5. But the Law of Accelerating Returns says that technology is evolving at a faster and faster clip, i.e. on an exponential curve.
How can the Law of Accelerating Returns hold true? Because it takes into account such certainties as Moore's Law and Metcalf's Law and the unwavering predictability of these laws mean that a very specific subset of things can be forecasted with great accuracy.
So the folks who think that in 10 years teenagers are still going to be exercising their thumbs all day TXTing are mistaken. The LUI will be how we interact with computing devices -- interfacing with our computers by conversing with a simulated personality, rather than clacking away at keyboards and keypads. It's so much more efficient, considering how many words per minute we speak versus type. The advent of the LUI will be as much of a paradigm shift in computing as the shift from DOS prompts to the Windows GUI (graphical user interface). Welcome to a world of ubiquitous computing where we will be wandering around, "computing" with our voice, rather than tethered to a desktop computer, screen, keyboard and mouse. Makes you think a bit differently about "mobile search", doesn't it?
Marry that vision with one of swarms of Utility Fog that can make utterly lifelike representations of other people, creatures, and objects in an environment not that unlike Gene Roddenberry's vision of the Star Trek holodeck. This could allow computers to take a tangible form when you are interfacing with them (via voice or movement). And it could allow you to interact with all five senses when "video conferencing" with far-away loved ones; it would be as if the person were really there beside you! Talk about "total immersion"! Oh, and utility fog will allow us to hover and fly around too. 
Continuing advances in AI will bring us, in the 2020's, to a decade where the intelligence of a computer will exceed the intelligence of a human being. Computers will be able to compose symphonies, paint masterpieces, fall in love, etc.
Somehow I don't think Google will, for too much longer, be basing its importance, authority and trust algorithms on the link graph. I think they will develop an artificial intelligence "expert system" that can use its own judgment in determining whether a web page or website is spammy.
Fun times ahead!
11 comments
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This is very interesting Stephan- great post.
Have you heard about BCIs (Brain Computer Interfaces)? Instead of "computing" with our voices we will probably be "computing" with our brains.
Great story by 60 minutes about BCI's here:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/31/60minute/main4560940.shtml
Comment by Kerry [Visitor] — 08/17/09 @ 13:01
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Interesting read. I don't think your assertion that text messaging will be replaced by a LUI. It's kind of a step backward, isn't it? Text messaging with an LUI = voice mail.
As a frequent texter, it has its own appeal for a plethora of reasons, you have to study those to make any assertions on how it can be upgraded (there are certainly ways... Google Wave's concept of consolidated textual communication might be a better extrapolation to future directions).
Also- Kerry... BCIs are not _necessarily_ going to happen. At Tufts they've only got to barely predicting the eminent trace of extreme cognitive load. Extrapolating to BCIs replacing our input devices is a little ambitious at this point...Comment by Jay Vidyarthi [Visitor] · http://blog.yucentrik.ca — 08/18/09 @ 10:07
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Hi what an excellent, post... you dead right about direction, i am bord in a hotel googling for possible new themes for Wordpress blogs... I cam across yours and this article... Your right google will have to change soon, how can you develop a search engine the only why is like you said, a fully automatous sytem which thinks for itself, more cost effective better for the individual... i am looking forward to the next generations of search engine technology...
Comment by James Blackman [Visitor]
· http://www.cocoonfxmedia.co.uk —
08/18/09 @ 12:07
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Linguistic user interface (LUI) would eventually replace the current graphical user interface most computer users know so well.
Comment by ashley alfred [Visitor] · http://www.htmtinteractive.com — 08/21/09 @ 01:54
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This really is a nice read, as you guys are discussing about Google’s wave communication concept it helps to communicate both text as well as VoIP.
I agreed with Jay's thought that text messaging will be replaced by a LUI, it's definitely a step in backward direction.
Comment by Mark Lewis [Visitor] · http://www.recoverybull.com — 08/21/09 @ 06:21
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Thanks for the post.The core of what they do is still search and advertising. A lot of researchers are working on that. They're working to give better-quality search results and to match ads better. Another area of research is gathering more sources of information, such as text in books, still images, video, and now audio in terms of speech recognition. I think another focus is to understand how people interact with Google and interact with each other on the Web, in general. How do people operate in these social networks? Understanding that question can help us serve them better.
Comment by Single Maria [Visitor] · http://www.behappy2day.com — 08/26/09 @ 16:26
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These are all really interesting topics to tie into search. It will be interesting to see just how much of a brain the search engines will develop over the next ten years. I have a feeling that it could be the beginning stages of artificial intelligence but who really knows. The signs are there.
Comment by Nick Stamoulis [Visitor] · http://www.searchengineoptimizationjournal.com/ — 08/27/09 @ 08:23
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While I agree that changes are afoot, I'm not sure you tethered a solid connection between general technological advancements and any specific changes in the way people perform or perceive search.
I'm not sure there is too much to be gained about thinking of search 20 years in the future, because the concepts such as Moore's law break down once we hit a time frame where fundamental elements of the way technology is built are altered - I find it much more interesting to look at the next ten years, in which I do not agree that Google will make a major shift away from text and links based popularity indicators and rely instead on expert systems or AI.
Comment #2 is insightful - your perception seems to be that LUI is a step forward from text based communication, but as commenter #2 illustrates, isn't that thinking a little linearly?
I'm also unsure that, even in the 2020's and beyond, your concept of how AI will develop (computers compose symphonies, paint masterpieces, fall in love) is in realistic check with what computer scientists consider intelligence, and hence would develop towards.
Intelligence is not appreciation of art... by any definition. That's called culture - and a concept of artificial culture producing artificial art isn't one I see humanity putting much money towards... at least, I would hope not.
Comment by Naoise Osborne [Visitor]
· http://www.acquisio.com/blog/ —
09/08/09 @ 12:54
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So sad to hear we aren't one of your favorite singularity sites. Please check us out if you haven't:
http://singularityhub.com
Singularity related stories everyday about advances in robotics, genetics, stem cells, longevity, and more.Comment by keith kleiner [Visitor] · http://singularityhub.com — 09/10/09 @ 23:10
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I agree with all of you. Without google and search engines evolving with the rest of technology we're going to be in trouble. These engines should try to focus more upon what exactly the researcher wants instead of simply matching key words and most popular searches.
Comment by Dsl vergleich [Visitor] · http://www.dslinfo.net/ — 09/11/09 @ 15:33
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Let's take the LUI to the next level.
http://www.starwars.com/vault/collecting/20090209b.html
TUI Thought User interface, may the force be with you ;-)Comment by Hershel Miller [Visitor] · http://www.madisonwisconsinliving.com — 10/03/09 @ 01:21
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